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| Posted By: Sean Murray Posted On: Mar 1, 2006 Views: 4554 | ZAR Overvalued With Elections coming up the ANC is taking flak. The Minister of Finance balanced the budget, Departments cannot spend their budgets, unemployment is 40% in real terms, the Deputy President speaks out against the Rand, its overvalued. Foreigners buying property will not be tolerated, they push prices high, locals cannot get into the market, Goverment plans to spend large sums to prepare for 2010 World Cup. Pension Funds are buying into Commodities, locals are coming out of the JSE taking profits. World trends are interest rates to go up, USA expected to slip into recession as they overcooked on the rate increases. Demand will fall accross the board, China will slow, commodity demands out of SA will fall off, Rand will loose its shine and settle around 8.90 v Euro and 7.70 to USD. If you go to SA you will see there is a dual economy, which will take a long time to merge, gold and commodities are giving support, but signs show that the specs are cashing in, Rand will continue to go soft from now on. |
| Posted By: Sean Murray Posted On: Jul 14, 2005 Views: 7987 | rand v basket of currencies The strong rand is hurting the poor people of South Africa, nobody cares about the poor people, the gainers are the rich and corporate business, job losses, reduction in tourism, reduced inward investment, the condition of the rand is because of commodities, SA should reduce talk down the rand showing the economy as it is. The fundamentals are not right for the rand to be where it is, we should have $ = 9.00ZAR and Euro = 10.00ZAR, devalue the rand, let your people share the wealth and not selective business to always gain. You owe this to the people and in time the market will win and the rand will gain again. Do not make the rand vunerable to a crash when demand for commodities retract , China and India cannot maintain their levels as their markets are slowing. Devalue now and make a wise play. |
| Posted By: heinz blasnik Posted On: Jun 30, 2005 Views: 7906 | weak/strong Rand there seems to be quite a consensus among many market commentators that the strong Rand is somehow 'bad' as it hampers export industries, which have traditionally been the backbone of SA's economy, and consequently many are calling for the state to intervene. i beg to differ - imo the SA Reserve Bank has exactly the right approach, namely, implement an anti-inflationary policy, and leave everything else to the markets. who would have thought back in the early 90's that the central bank under an ANC government would be such a staunchly free market oriented (as far as that is possible for a central bank) , independent institution! Mboweni's approach is among the most conservative in the entire universe of central banks, and the SA economy will profit immensely from this in the long term. it is true that export oriented industries had to suffer - because, basically, a subsidy in the form of a perennially weaker Rand has been withdrawn. but there are winners AND losers (essentially, everybody not depending on exports is a winner, and even exporters profit from lower input costs of imported factors), and it is actually debatable whether the exporters aren't also served well in the long run by a stronger Rand. after all, it forces them to become more efficient in order to remain competitive. has the strong Yen done any damage to Japan's exports? absolutely not! it has transformed Japan's export industry into the lean mean fighting machine it is today! best regards, heinz blasnik |
| Posted By: Nolan Posted On: Mar 10, 2005 Views: 9298 | forex spammers ALERT to forex traders opened a demo with openforex and gave them my email address and soon afterwards began receiving emails from spammers including porn sites. looks as though many of the sites on openforex are also related to them like mabico |
| Posted By: Forex Directory Posted On: Oct 28, 2004 Views: 12686 | Forex Polls Open 24 Hours A Day Forex Directory Polls are now open 24 hours per day, Sunday through Thursday. Each day at 4:30 pm et, the polls are set to zero. To view a trend on an intraday basis, check back during key times and review the activity. Example, late evening during the eastern time zone, asian traders are placing their votes, whereas, early in the morning eastern time, european traders are very active. Later in the day, north american traders may be registering their vote. http://www.forexdirectory.net/forexpollsxotic.html Good Luck |
| Posted By: Forex Predictions.com Posted On: Sep 19, 2004 Views: 13598 | Free South African Rand Forecast High and low forecast published each day for the south african rand. Visit http://www.forexdirectory.net/zar.html or http://www.forexpredictions.com/zarD/zarD.html |
| Posted By: Pieter Meyer Posted On: Sep 2, 2004 Views: 13597 | Strong/Weak Rand Dave made a comment that our goal should not be lower inflation, but stimulating local economic activity. One way of doing that, and if the inplied goal of a weaker Rand is also included, is to print money, a popular choice it seems, because now you have more to stimulate the economy. Not so - the US is strugging with their dollor losing ground, but they even have a "good" excuse for that, because now the deficit looks better. Either way, we do not have a say, because we are South Africa, with a small economy and little opportunity to manipulate currency markets. Show me someone that wants a weak Rand and he will have some export activity too. Mixed messages I would say. |
| Posted By: phill Posted On: Aug 27, 2004 Views: 13676 | pete - petrol It isn’t my petrol so much: Everything moves from a to b and uses fuel. So fuel is a component in the price of everything (right?) At 45 dollars a barrel and at (say) R13 to the dollar what would happen to prices? And what would happen to jobs? I am not saying a weak or a strong Rand is good or bad. All I believe is that, weak or strong, there must be a consequence for someone – there is no right level, only a level dictated by the market (for as long as we wish to operate in a ‘free’ market – that’s the entrance fee). |
| Posted By: Johan Posted On: Aug 26, 2004 Views: 12502 | Exchange rate I think Dave should get the Nobel prize for Economics. We will continue to pay the price for our temporary low inflation for many years to come. |
| Posted By: Dave Posted On: Aug 26, 2004 Views: 8974 | Inflation Another thing - what we want is a ZAR/USD price of R8.50 (at least) with STABILITY thereafter. It's the volatlity in the ZAR which causes inflation, not the strength or weakness thereof. Tito has articifically benefited from the strong Rand and is a "hero" now that we have low inflation - but this is a short-term benefit, for which the price still has to be paid. We NEED a weak Rand and, for the period of it's weakening + 12 months, we will pay the price in inflation. And this was NOT necessary. Thanks, Tito, thanks VERY much! |
| Posted By: Dave Posted On: Aug 26, 2004 Views: 7905 | Weak /Strong Rand We live in a (relatively) free market and thus all the value-adding things we do in SA compete against the rest of the world - even much of the local labour effort supplying local needs. And we therefore effectively sell all of our labour efforts in USD and a strong Rand makes our labour effort very expensive in international terms and we have to meaure it in international terms because that's where the competition is for jobs. The result is that economic effort (i.e. jobs) moves from SA to elsewhere in the world. The ONLY exception to this will be work that is done for South Africans and which must be done IN S.A. And this work will decrease anyway because all other jobs will be decreasing. The SARB has very limited control potential of the ZAR/USD but keeping real interest rates at such a high differential to the USA is idiotic. However, Tito IS doing what he's been told to do - i.e. minimise inflation. The problem is that reducing inflation isn't what our objective should be - it should be to maximise local economic activity. And inflation must end up where inflation does - inflation is a symptom of what's going on, not the cause. |
| Posted By: Pete Posted On: Aug 25, 2004 Views: 4521 | Rand Phil how much have you saved on petrol since the rand got so strong? The price of petrol has been rising anyway! And now that the rand is still strong to the dollar the price of petrol is still rising! |
| Posted By: phill Posted On: Aug 23, 2004 Views: 4240 | weakrand/strong rand There is a huge import component to all export activity in South Africa – even agriculture depends on imported chemicals and machinery. Exporting from a weak currency base is not developing exports, it is subsidising them. Again, at R13 to the dollar, where do you think we’d be now in fuel alone? With respect I think you are giving Reserve credit for more muscle than they actually have. If you want a free market, you must live with its faults. I am not saying it is good or bad, just that there is more to it than currency. |
| Posted By: Johan Posted On: Aug 23, 2004 Views: 3497 | Rand Firstly, a weak Rand makes us more competitive in export markets, hence more of global demand for a product comes out of SA and hence more work in SA. Not only mining! Secondly, talking about intervention in markets. The Rand trades where it trades because the Reserve Bank keep interest rates at an artificially high level and short term foreign investors/specultaors invest in interest bearing instruments, thus propping up the value of the Rand. Please just take note of the deficit on the trading account annouced last week!! |
| Posted By: phill Posted On: Aug 23, 2004 Views: 3402 | strong rand/weak rand In what way would a weak rand create jobs? What do you think fuel would cost at R13 to the dollar and how many jobs would be lost as a consequence? Mining is not the only sector here and currency is not the only issue. The rand trades where the rand trades – that what market economics is all about and really sentiment – however well intended - is irrelevant. |
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