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Poll: Current
Will AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) be reached in [1219 votes total]

10 years or less (275)
 23%
11-20 years (246)
 20%
21-50 years (289)
 24%
51-100 years (176)
 14%
more than 100 years (91)
 7%
Never (142)
 12%


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Total Comments 8 | Start A New Comment
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Posted By: Niikola Andrii

Posted On: January 3rd
Views: 173
Chinese Room

The topic says it all...never.


Posted By: trylks

Posted On: December 28th
Views: 799
Good breakthroughs

I guess we can trust on DARPA, CERN, and a few other institutions to do the kind of investment that companies optimizing ROI would never do, I just don't see many happening considering among other factors how NASA is faring in recent years. Since the web to the autonomous cars I see a huge gap of breakthroughs. Are Bitcoin and deep learning breakthroughs or just ways to waste great computing power? Time will tell.

I'm writing this from an smartphone, they are not a breakthrough [1], even if widely used and useful.

Since the man landed on the Moon we should be seeing more and more breakthroughs, instead we have post-truth, bull**** and hype out of any proportion, polarization of the society, global warming, and soon we should have the next economic crisis.

Our economy is training humans (brains, culture, genes,...) to be people of success, not of value [2], what breakthroughs can we expect?

[1] https://www.cnet.com/forums/discussions/what-is-the-difference-between-a -pda-pocket-pc-palm-smart-316947/

[2] http://izquotes.com/quote/226629


Posted By: Gregory Piatetsky, Editor

Posted On: December 28th
Views: 824
AGI != Singularity

This poll is about AGI - Artificial General Intelligence, not singularity.
However the previous writer made this comment:
"Fortunately, there is no path of low hanging fruits and minimum viable products leading to the singularity, therefore nobody is working in the path to it."

This shows linear thinking - which usually works for most things, but not for breakthroughs.

Probably most of the great science and tech advances in history were not on the path of minimum viable products.
There were no minimum viable products leading Tim Berners-Lee to create the web. There was no minimum viable product for Einstein when he came up with theory of relativity, both special and general. If AGI is reached, it probably will be a result of several more breakthroughs which we probably cannot foresee now.


Posted By: trylks

Posted On: December 26th
Views: 925
the singularity is not coming

The limitations to create the technological singularity are not in the technology, they are in humans and their economy. Amazon Mechanical Turk can do the same things that a human can do (because they are humans), and it is more profitable than building the technological singularity.

If the singularity was possible in our current economy, creating something so similar to a god, which would then be owned by a company, would be the worst to happen to humanity: a return to ancient Egypt where a few (singularity shareholders) would have everything and everyone else would be their slave.

Fortunately, there is no path of low hanging fruits and minimum viable products leading to the singularity, therefore nobody is working in the path to it.

For more text (but probably no more sense), with a ridiculous number of links, here: https://trylks.wordpress.com/2017/12/19/the-technological-singularity-is -beyond-human-capabilities/


 
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