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| Posted By: Stel Posted On: Feb 3, 2008 Views: 4747 | AUD - WOW! I don't think any of us can quite predict anything in the very near future with the AUD. Back up again to 90.4 today, probably higher tomorrow!. Its all a waiting game. Surely it's going to come down one day - its just a matter of time. |
| Posted By: look Posted On: Jan 21, 2008 Views: 4582 | down goes the dollar watch it now - 80 cents before long - interest rates alone wont hold it up |
| Posted By: lucy Posted On: Jan 16, 2008 Views: 4600 | UK £ to AU $ Australian $ seems so stroung. Should I wait to tranfer UK pounds to AU dollars. What are your predictions over the next couple of months. Thanks |
| Posted By: Scott Posted On: Jan 9, 2008 Views: 4663 | Change GBP to AUD Should I change the GBP to AUD now or wait? |
| Posted By: Michael Posted On: Dec 17, 2007 Views: 4989 | Peter - I agree We're about to start the race down on the AUD. Stagflation is set for the US and Australia's economic bubble is bursting. 2008 will be a bad year for the AUD |
| Posted By: Peter Posted On: Dec 14, 2007 Views: 4960 | Aussie Dollar I believe 65 to 67 cents is its true worth sell now whilst you can as it will fall and very quickly watch this space by Feb it will be under 70 cents where it should be. Too many greedy people are going to get burnt and badly. The US $ is still the currency to watch. Mid term you will do well. |
| Posted By: michael Posted On: Nov 20, 2007 Views: 5349 | RE: Can anyone post a comment on the impact to the > Can anyone post a comment on the impact to the AUD by the election this week? I would say: Rudd gets in AUD drops, traders perceive short term money flowing in AU stops with reduced govt spending to keep consumers busy Howard gets in - it will rise a bit but then cotinue to bob around until we hit troubled waters in the economy next year when it will start to spiral as tom points out to around 75... and possibly lower. |
| Posted By: Michaael Guilfoyle Posted On: Nov 20, 2007 Views: 5239 | USD - still king of the currency hill Tom in my view the US still dominates the global economy and will for some time. collectively US Corporations still outrank all other nation corporations around the world in terms of revenue, profits, R&D expenditure, brand value and so on. THE BIG REASON why the US dollar in the medium-long term will not loose it's value is because it is the only nation in the world that can raise the biggest amount of money (taxes) from it's people and corporations on a per capita basis. If you reflect on this China looks like a pea compared to the US. This is essentially the underlying basis to valuing Govt bonds and what provides an underlying valuation of a currency. It's also why the US is a safe haven in troubled times. The reason the US can bring in large tax revenues - more so than any other nation is a cultural one: Culturally the US still has the most fervent entrepreneurial attitude in the world. Us business people are still the most likely to tackle the more risky ventures, "out there" concepts and so on. Europe, Asia and the likes still like to focus on tried and true business concepts. It;s this risk that drives the world economy forward - and generally more US business people will go where no others really want to - yet the others all complain and whine when the US does well. What we're seeing now is the downside of US business people trying out their risky approaches and running into trouble.. but very quickly they sort things out and are off and running again. The reason the US outdoes the rest of the world in business is because of the their attitude to freedom and liberty for all. Granted at times they contradict themselves (they are human) but on the whole of it they still lead in the these concepts. When the Democrats get back in it will spark the next wave in US economic development - for one simple reason - most Americans will breathe a sigh of relief and start producing again. China does not have the culture to outdo the US in this area nor does Europe - not without a major cultural shift which generally takes 2 - 3 generations. Although these short terms bouts of a downturn do pose a risk in a shift of currency focus and short terms events. I posted this comment on another site in a related article: The U.S. dollar is the standard currency of international transactions. If the dollar continues to weaken, then non-U.S. exporters will use other currencies to trade on to lessen the impact, and this will then make the USD lose importance as a global trade standard for transactions -- which would then effect the flow of U.S. dollars cycling through the world. I would imagine it would also make U.S. foreign investments far more expensive and therefore make growth for U.S. multinationals (the bulk of the world's multinationals) more expensive. On the whole, this could upset a number of financial and economic standards that will throw things out of balance and cause an overall global slowdown in investment and growth. I would imagine in time it would also entice U.S. companies to hold more and more of their funds in foreign markets (to lessen the cost of investment in foreign markets for growth) and only acknowledge it in U.S. currency at earnings reporting time. I think the greater concern here is how dramatic the changes in currency valuations are in such a short time frame. This has the risk of causing dramatic problems in the global economy. If this was all happening over years, then it would simply be a natural course of adjustment, but such a dramatic change in such a short time is of great concern. |
| Posted By: Tom Posted On: Nov 20, 2007 Views: 5190 | To Michael (and anyone else interested) 1) I see the Chinese came out this week and said they supported a strong US dollar, which in turn supports some of the rhetoric coming from the US. This seems to support your last comment about the Chinese being hedged to the US. The Arab nations are also nervous about being pegged to the USD, while the OPEC meeting turned nasty against the USD. It seems to me that the global economy could not cope if the USD were to crash further, and that the various players would not let that happen - do you agree, or are the problems with USD fatal? 2) Agree with your comments on the property boom in Oz. Not sure how Kevin 07 and Waaaaayne Swan will deal with the economy in the tricky times ahead - how long before the AUD is back down to 0.75USD? |
| Posted By: pingu Posted On: Nov 19, 2007 Views: 5094 | AUD/NZD Can anyone post a comment on the impact to the AUD by the election this week? Thanks, pingu |
| Posted By: michael Posted On: Nov 19, 2007 Views: 5013 | AUD also track USD AUD tracks down on weakness of USD against other currencies. When USD weaknes carry traders pull out of AUD with concerns on risk. Australia is so close to the US in terms of how the govt runs the economy. Also Australias gains are actually more on the back of a property boom in the last few years more than the commodity boom. btw: chine needs to spend that $1.4 trillion on social infrastructure otherwise they are heading for massive problems. Also China is hedged massively to the US economy... it's all down from here for the next 2 years at least. |
| Posted By: topnarcie Posted On: Nov 14, 2007 Views: 4967 | AUD/USD Agree with many comments posted about the carry trades and the over valuation of the AUD to the Euro, GBP and JPY however against the USD am forecasting a bumpy ride to parity. China is sitting on 1.4trillion USD it wishes to unwind over the next 2yrs against the Euro. U.S. is expecting writdowns of 500B plus in the subprime mortgage sector. Interest rate differential makes a carry trade shorting USD in favour of the AUD more appealing. Commodiities will sky rocket in demand and price in times of global turmoil strengthening the AUD further.... Buy Oil, Gold, Silver, AUD long short USD. Enjoy the interest while riding the wave, have fun traders...... |
| Posted By: Mcihael Posted On: Nov 7, 2007 Views: 4650 | It;s all carry trades Who wants to place bets on when AUD crashes? 15 cents are due to carry traders gambling risk. 500 billion dollars (total debt $1.7 Trillion up from $1.2T in early 2005) has been borrowed in Australia since early 2005. The economic boom in Australia is due to debt which is now more expensive. The $1T Australian economy was expanded by roughly $250B a year in the last two years thanks to growing debt. Not healthy. Tax cuts have caused inflation, upping interest rates, upping the AUD with Carry traders playing games, which in turn simply makes the value of tax cuts vanish from the Australian economy. In other words the Govt literally put a match to Billions of dollars in the economy. This money has been wasted and not invested for the future. I'm expecting a recession. |
| Posted By: Watching Posted On: Nov 2, 2007 Views: 4574 | Overvalued Can anyone seriously think the aussie is worth this much??? 93cents - but a few weeks ago 78 cents?? |
| Posted By: moneyp Posted On: Oct 30, 2007 Views: 2861 | aud and nzd I agree aud is a little overvalued now but nzd is the worse.....nzd is way overvalued against the usd....it should go down to .55 to .60 audnzd is undervalued currently....it should be around 1.30 to 1.35 |
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